New York Yankees at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soto singled to right, Lindor scored.6–12
- 8Rice doubled to center, Bellinger scored.6–11
- 7Alonso homered to left (392 feet), Lindor scored and Soto scored.5–11
- 7Lindor singled to center, Mauricio scored on error, Lindor safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Grisham.5–8
- 7Volpe homered to left center (408 feet).5–7
- 6Bellinger doubled to center, Grisham scored and Peraza scored.4–7
- 5Alonso homered to right center (382 feet), Lindor scored.2–7
- 3Wells homered to right (372 feet).2–5
- 2Marte singled to left, Taylor scored.1–5
- 2Chisholm Jr. homered to left center (387 feet).1–4
- 1Nimmo homered to right center (387 feet), Marte scored, Lindor scored and Alonso scored.0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -145 / NYM +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- NYM +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.0 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −14 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +9 Elo | NYY 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 32–131st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 4th of 301539 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–47 | 41–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 34–44 | 25–38 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders | 37–51 | 39–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–8 NYM in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.