New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jasson DominguezBatting1-5, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-4, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Domínguez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Judge scored, Stanton out at second.5–12
- 8Springer singled to left, Barger scored and Giménez scored, Clement to third.4–12
- 8Clement walked, Lukes scored, Barger to second, Giménez to third.4–10
- 7Springer homered to left center (405 feet), Heineman scored, Barger scored and Clement scored.4–9
- 7Clement singled to left, Giménez scored, Barger to second, Heineman to third.4–5
- 7Domínguez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Chisholm Jr. scored on fielding error by first baseman Guerrero Jr., Stanton to second.4–4
- 7Bellinger scored on error, Stanton safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Clement, Chisholm Jr. safe at third on error.3–4
- 4Giménez homered to center (408 feet), Schneider scored and Straw scored.2–4
- 4Springer homered to left center (404 feet).2–1
- 1Domínguez singled to center, Goldschmidt scored and Judge scored, Stanton to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML NYY -165 / TOR +140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -149
- TOR +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +2 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +41 Elo | NYY 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 26–168th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15034th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301548 | Elo rating | 150317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–44 | 50–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 34–41 | 20–18 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 30–16 |
| Overs–unders | 33–51 | 47–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 16–14 TOR in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 30.