Athletics at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4
- Mitch SpencePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4LeMahieu reached on infield single to shortstop, Goldschmidt scored, Volpe to second, Rice to third.0–3
- 3Bellinger singled to center, Volpe scored, Judge to third.0–2
- 2Chisholm Jr. homered to right (377 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 70%
- ML ATH +220 / NYY -270
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 65.1%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -234
- ATH +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.3 – 5.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −8 | ATH: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +108 Elo | NYY 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 68.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 21st of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 24–1611th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 28th of 301436 | Elo rating | 15502nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–43 | 38–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 32–39 |
| Underdog | 33–30 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 47–36 | 31–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 0–10 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 4–12 NYY in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.
