Athletics at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Willie MacIverBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Judge homered to left center (426 feet), Bellinger scored.5–12
- 6Clarke grounded out to first, Muncy scored, MacIver to second, Soderstrom to third.5–10
- 6Urías grounded out to third, Kurtz scored, Soderstrom to second, Muncy to third.4–10
- 6Soderstrom walked, Rooker scored, Muncy to second, Kurtz to third.3–10
- 6Kurtz reached on infield single to shortstop, Bleday scored, Rooker to third.2–10
- 5Bellinger homered to right center (378 feet), Volpe scored and Grisham scored.1–10
- 5MacIver homered to left (386 feet).1–7
- 4Judge homered to left (402 feet), Bellinger scored.0–7
- 3Chisholm Jr. scored on Severino wild pitch, Goldschmidt to second on wild pitch by Severino.0–5
- 3Chisholm Jr. scored on Severino wild pitch, Goldschmidt to second on wild pitch by Severino.0–5
- 3Chisholm Jr. doubled to center, Grisham scored, Rice scored on fielding error by center fielder Clarke and Judge scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.0–4
- 2Chisholm Jr. homered to right (362 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 66%
- ML ATH +180 / NYY -215
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 67.4%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -191
- ATH +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.5 – 6.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −19 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +126 Elo | NYY 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 68.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 20th of 3019–24 | Road vs home | 25–1711th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301439 | Elo rating | 15472nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–44 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 33–40 |
| Underdog | 34–31 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 47–38 | 31–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 0–10 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–13 NYY in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.