Athletics at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-4
- Clarke SchmidtPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wynns singled to center, Kurtz scored on error and Muncy scored on throwing error by center fielder Bellinger, Wynns to second.7–0
- 8Soderstrom hit sacrifice fly to left, Rooker scored.5–0
- 6Kurtz homered to right (356 feet), Butler scored and Wilson scored.4–0
- 4Rooker homered to left center (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 71%
- ML ATH +235 / NYY -290
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 71.9%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -249
- ATH +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.7 – 5.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +16 | ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +163 Elo | NYY 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 68.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 21st of 3018–24 | Road vs home | 25–169th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301434 | Elo rating | 15522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–44 | 39–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 33–39 |
| Underdog | 33–31 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 47–37 | 31–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 0–10 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 4–13 NYY in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.
