New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 3 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bellinger homered to right (360 feet).4–5
- 6Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Clement scored and Lukes scored, Guerrero Jr. to second, Springer thrown out at third.3–5
- 6Clement reached on infield single to shortstop, Straw scored, Lukes to third.3–3
- 6Lukes singled to left, Schneider scored, Straw to third.3–2
- 6Stanton singled to center, Domínguez scored, Judge to third.3–1
- 5Guerrero Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Clement scored.2–1
- 4Chisholm Jr. homered to right (367 feet), Grisham scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -145 / TOR +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- TOR +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −2 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +32 Elo | NYY 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.4 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 25–169th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301549 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–43 | 49–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–40 | 20–18 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 29–16 |
| Overs–unders | 32–51 | 46–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 16–13 TOR in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 29.