New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Barger singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.9–11
- 8Springer scored on Williams wild pitch, Guerrero Jr. to third on wild pitch by Williams.9–10
- 8Springer scored on Williams wild pitch, Guerrero Jr. to third on wild pitch by Williams.9–10
- 8Judge homered to left (440 feet), Rice scored.9–9
- 7Schneider homered to right center (403 feet).7–9
- 6Bellinger grounded into fielder's choice to second, LeMahieu scored, Judge out at second, Rice to third.7–8
- 5Stanton homered to center (415 feet), Rice scored and Judge scored.6–8
- 5Judge doubled to center, LeMahieu scored, Rice to third.3–8
- 5Rice singled to right, Volpe scored, LeMahieu to third.2–8
- 5LeMahieu singled to center, Domínguez scored, Volpe to second.1–8
- 3Giménez reached on infield single to second, Wagner scored, Giménez to second.0–8
- 1Schneider homered to center (410 feet), Wagner scored.0–7
- 1Barger homered to center (428 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Kirk scored.0–5
- 1Kirk singled to right, Giménez scored and Springer scored, Kirk to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -135 / TOR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +6 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +11 Elo | NYY 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–20 | Road vs home | 27–168th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15034th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301544 | Elo rating | 150715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–45 | 51–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 34–42 | 20–18 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 31–16 |
| Overs–unders | 34–51 | 48–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 16–15 TOR in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 31.