New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Springer homered to left center (421 feet), Lukes scored.5–8
- 7Volpe grounded out to shortstop, Bellinger scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.5–6
- 7Chisholm Jr. doubled to center, Judge scored, Bellinger to third.4–6
- 5Barger homered to right center (401 feet).3–6
- 4Lukes doubled to left, Schneider scored and Wagner scored.3–5
- 4Volpe scored on Bassitt wild pitch, Wells to third on wild pitch by Bassitt.3–3
- 4Volpe scored on Bassitt wild pitch, Wells to third on wild pitch by Bassitt.3–3
- 4Volpe singled to right, Domínguez scored.2–3
- 3Springer homered to right center (408 feet), Lukes scored.1–3
- 3Grisham homered to center (409 feet).1–1
- 1Barger doubled to left, Springer scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -135 / TOR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −19 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +44 Elo | NYY 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.119th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–21 | Road vs home | 28–168th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 150815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–46 | 52–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 34–43 | 20–18 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 32–16 |
| Overs–unders | 35–51 | 49–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 16–16 TOR in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 32.