New York Yankees at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jasson DominguezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin HagenmanPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7McNeil homered to right (398 feet), Alonso scored.5–6
- 6Baty homered to right (370 feet).5–4
- 5Domínguez homered to left (356 feet), LeMahieu scored.5–3
- 4Bellinger homered to right (405 feet).3–3
- 3Alonso singled to left, Soto scored.2–3
- 1Soto homered to left center (393 feet), Nimmo scored.2–2
- 1Judge homered to left center (428 feet).2–0
- 1Domínguez homered to left center (380 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML NYY -105 / NYM -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- NYY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −4 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Justin Hagenman (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +18 Elo | NYM 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 31–131st of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301540 | Elo rating | 15259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–47 | 41–47 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–44 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders | 36–51 | 38–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–7 NYM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.