Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Baldwin homered to right (405 feet), Profar scored.3–2
- 5Mullins homered to right (391 feet), O'Neill scored.3–0
- 3Westburg homered to right (368 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML BAL +150 / ATL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -161
- BAL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.7 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +13 | BAL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +63 Elo | ATL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 3018–27 | Road vs home | 24–1915th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 21st of 301487 | Elo rating | 151611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–49 | 37–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–26 | 26–39 |
| Underdog | 22–23 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 39–47 | 35–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–3 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.