Los Angeles Angels at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting3-4
- Grant HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rengifo singled to left, Campero scored.4–0
- 8Soler doubled to center, Adell scored and Ward scored.3–0
- 8Adell doubled to left, Trout scored, Ward to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 64%
- ML LAA +165 / ATL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.3%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -177
- LAA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.1 – 5.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −8 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +73 Elo | ATL 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 10th of 3021–22 | Road vs home | 23–1713th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 27th of 301457 | Elo rating | 151911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–41 | 36–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 35–25 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 45–38 | 34–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–4 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.