Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 7Murphy homered to left (455 feet), Ozuna scored, Riley scored and Albies scored.1–6
- 6Bohm singled to center, Marsh scored, Bohm to second, Schwarber to third.1–2
- 2Allen singled to left, White scored, Fairchild thrown out at home.0–2
- 1Riley reached on infield single to second, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 61%
- ML PHI +145 / ATL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -156
- PHI +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.3 – 4.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +6 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +20 Elo | ATL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 6th of 3022–20 | Road vs home | 22–1614th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 151811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–41 | 35–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–34 | 24–36 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 34–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 18–19 ATL in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 37.