Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting4-6, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Alan RangelPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Braves- Stuart FairchildBatting2-4
- Michael PetersenPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kepler singled to center, Rojas scored.13–0
- 9Turner homered to left center (393 feet).12–0
- 3Schwarber homered to right center (439 feet), Turner scored.11–0
- 3Marsh scored on error, Turner safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Riley, Turner safe at second on error.9–0
- 3Kemp homered to center (405 feet), Realmuto scored and Stott scored.8–0
- 2Castellanos homered to center (445 feet), Schwarber scored and Bohm scored.5–0
- 2Turner homered to left center (397 feet).2–0
- 1Realmuto walked, Turner scored, Kepler to second, Schwarber to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML PHI +150 / ATL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -161
- PHI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 5.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −2 | PHI: Mick Abel: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +17 Elo | ATL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 6th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 22–1513th of 30 |
| 26th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 6th of 301533 | Elo rating | 152211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–41 | 35–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–34 | 24–35 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 36–45 | 33–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 17–19 ATL in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 36.