Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-3
- Ranger SuarezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Turner hit sacrifice fly to center, Kemp scored.2–1
- 5Kemp doubled to left, Stott scored.1–1
- 2Murphy homered to center (451 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML PHI +135 / ATL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 49.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -145
- PHI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +8 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +1 Elo | PHI 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 6th of 3022–21 | Road vs home | 23–1613th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15026th of 30 |
| 5th of 301534 | Elo rating | 152011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–42 | 36–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–34 | 25–36 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 37–46 | 34–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 18–20 ATL in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 38.