Los Angeles Angels at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Didier FuentesPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soler homered to left center (448 feet).3–8
- 7Profar homered to right (413 feet).2–8
- 6Olson homered to right (358 feet), Harris II scored, Allen scored and Acuña Jr. scored.2–7
- 6Murphy homered to left center (406 feet), Profar scored and Albies scored.2–3
- 1Adell singled to center, Schanuel scored and Ward scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 55%
- ML LAA +115 / ATL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- LAA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.5 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −14 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Didier Fuentes: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +59 Elo | ATL 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 23–1815th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 26th of 301461 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–41 | 36–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 25–38 |
| Underdog | 36–25 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 45–39 | 34–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 3–4 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.