New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Soto singled to center, Lindor scored.7–6
- 8Alonso homered to center (407 feet), Soto scored.6–6
- 8Lindor homered to center (425 feet), Nimmo scored.4–6
- 7Holliday homered to left center (406 feet).2–6
- 6Laureano singled to left, Henderson scored and O'Hearn scored.2–5
- 6O'Hearn doubled to right, Holliday scored and Westburg scored, Henderson to third.2–3
- 6Nimmo doubled to left, Baty scored.2–1
- 6Mauricio homered to right (362 feet).1–1
- 3Holliday singled to right, Mullins scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -125 / BAL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.9 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −16 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +37 Elo | NYM 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3019–25 | Road vs home | 19–2225th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Elo rating | 149221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–49 | 40–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–38 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders | 41–50 | 40–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–4 BAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.