New York Yankees at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mets- Starling MarteBatting3-5
- Brandon WaddellPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Judge hit sacrifice fly to left, Goldschmidt scored.6–4
- 6Senger grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Mauricio scored, McNeil out at second, Baty to third.5–4
- 6McNeil reached on infield single to first, Nimmo scored, Baty to second, Mauricio to third.5–3
- 5Lindor singled to center, McNeil scored and Senger scored, Marte to second.5–2
- 5Judge homered to center (388 feet), Goldschmidt scored.5–0
- 4Wells grounded into fielder's choice to second, Volpe scored, LeMahieu out at second.3–0
- 4Volpe grounded into fielder's choice to second, Stanton scored, Bellinger out at second.2–0
- 3Wells homered to right (396 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML NYY -220 / NYM +160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 49.3%, market 64.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -179
- NYM +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 3.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −2 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Chris Devenski (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +5 Elo | NYM 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 64.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 33–131st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 6th of 301536 | Elo rating | 15298th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–48 | 42–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–45 | 25–38 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 38–51 | 40–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–9 NYM in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.