Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan DoddPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Stallings doubled to left, O'Hearn scored and Laureano scored.9–6
- 10Laureano doubled to left, Westburg scored.7–6
- 7Holliday singled to right, Mullins scored.6–6
- 6Profar grounded out to shortstop, Allen scored, Olson to second, Acuña Jr. to third.5–6
- 4Riley doubled to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson thrown out at home.5–5
- 4Olson singled to right, Allen scored, Acuña Jr. to second.5–4
- 4Cowser homered to center (426 feet), O'Hearn scored.5–3
- 3Olson homered to right (384 feet).3–3
- 3Westburg homered to center (461 feet), Mullins scored.3–2
- 3O'Neill homered to left center (445 feet).1–2
- 1Riley homered to center (429 feet), Olson scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 58%
- ML BAL +130 / ATL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -140
- BAL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.9 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −2 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Aaron Bummer (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +32 Elo | ATL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 24th of 3019–27 | Road vs home | 24–2018th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Elo rating | 151412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–49 | 37–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–26 | 26–40 |
| Underdog | 23–23 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 39–48 | 35–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–3 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.