Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan RitterBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte grounded into fielder's choice to second, Benson scored.3–4
- 9Benson tripled to left, Steer scored.3–3
- 7Marte homered to left center (399 feet).3–2
- 7Fernández doubled to right, Doyle scored.3–1
- 3Ritter homered to left (354 feet), Fernández scored.2–1
- 1Hays hit sacrifice fly to center, McLain scored, De La Cruz to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 70%
- ML COL +220 / CIN -270
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- CIN: Elo 71.3%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -234
- COL +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 6.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | −3 | COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 1.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +158 Elo | CIN 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 68.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–36 | Road vs home | 26–2218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 30th of 301384 | Elo rating | 150119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–48 | 50–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 16–28 |
| Underdog | 44–44 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 40–54 | 41–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–13 CIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 17.