Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-4
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ramírez homered to left (420 feet).5–1
- 6Sanoja hit sacrifice fly to right, Hill scored.4–1
- 6Hill grounded into fielder's choice to third, Wagaman scored on throwing error by third baseman Marte, Hill second, Hill safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Richardson.3–1
- 5Hicks singled to right, Ramírez scored.2–1
- 5Ramírez doubled to right, Edwards scored.1–1
- 2Stephenson hit sacrifice fly to right, Hays scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML MIA +120 / CIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 56.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.5 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −4 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +46 Elo | CIN 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 13th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 24–1915th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 25th of 301464 | Elo rating | 150518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–38 | 48–42 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–13 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 48–25 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 43–45 | 39–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–9 CIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.