Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Austin HaysBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stott homered to right (405 feet), Realmuto scored.1–3
- 5Schwarber doubled to right, Marsh scored.1–1
- 5Hays homered to right center (377 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 66%
- ML CIN +180 / PHI -215
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.6%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -191
- CIN +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +10 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 1.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +82 Elo | PHI 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 66.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 29–167th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15374th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–41 | 45–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 33–36 |
| Underdog | 33–16 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 39–50 | 39–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–8 PHI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.