San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Max KeplerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bohm tripled to right, Rojas scored.1–5
- 5Castellanos singled to right, Turner scored.1–4
- 5Marsh homered to center (418 feet).1–3
- 4Kepler homered to right (379 feet), Bohm scored.1–2
- 4Merrill singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML SD +120 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- SD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.5 – 4.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +14 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +42 Elo | PHI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 18th of 3021–25 | Road vs home | 27–156th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 9th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15366th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–37 | 43–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 31–35 |
| Underdog | 28–14 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 36–49 | 38–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 4–11 PHI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.