San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting3-4
- Matt WaldronPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 5Castellanos homered to left (372 feet).0–4
- 4Turner reached on infield single to third, Marsh scored.0–3
- 4Marsh reached on infield single to first, Stott scored.0–2
- 2Stott grounded out to second, Kepler scored, Realmuto to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 69%
- ML SD +210 / PHI -255
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.4%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -223
- SD +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.4 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +7 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +51 Elo | PHI 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 19th of 3020–24 | Road vs home | 26–146th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 30 |
| 9th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15355th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–36 | 42–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 30–34 |
| Underdog | 27–13 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 35–48 | 37–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–10 PHI in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.