San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsh singled to center, Realmuto scored.6–4
- 7Sosa scored on Hoeing wild pitch.6–3
- 7Sosa scored on Hoeing wild pitch.6–3
- 7Sosa tripled to left, Realmuto scored.6–2
- 6Schwarber homered to right (386 feet).6–1
- 4Arraez walked, Díaz scored, Merrill to second, Tatis Jr. to third.6–0
- 2Machado doubled to left, Díaz scored, Merrill scored and Tatis Jr. scored.5–0
- 2Merrill walked, Cronenworth scored, Tatis Jr. to second, Díaz to third.2–0
- 2Tatis Jr. walked, Bogaerts scored, Díaz to second, Cronenworth to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 51%
- ML SD -115 / PHI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- SD: Elo 46.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −2 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Mick Abel: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +25 Elo | PHI 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 20th of 3020–25 | Road vs home | 27–146th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301522 | Elo rating | 15375th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–37 | 43–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 31–34 |
| Underdog | 27–14 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 35–49 | 37–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–11 PHI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.