Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe RossPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Schwarber doubled to center, Marsh scored and Sosa scored.9–6
- 5Espinal grounded into fielder's choice to left, Stephenson scored, Benson out at second.9–4
- 5Benson singled to right, Steer scored, Stephenson to third.8–4
- 4De La Cruz singled to left, Espinal scored, Friedl to second.7–4
- 3Castellanos grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Schwarber scored, Bohm out at second, Harper to third.6–4
- 3Marte hit sacrifice fly to center, Steer scored.6–3
- 3Steer doubled to left, De La Cruz scored and Hays scored.5–3
- 3Hays doubled to right, McLain scored, De La Cruz to third.3–3
- 3De La Cruz singled to right, Friedl scored, McLain to third.2–3
- 2Hinds grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Stephenson scored on throwing error by catcher Realmuto, Marte safe at third on error, Steer out at home.1–3
- 1Castellanos homered to left center (384 feet), Harper scored.0–3
- 1Bohm hit sacrifice fly to left, Turner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML CIN +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- CIN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −17 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +25 Elo | PHI 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 14th of 3021–23 | Road vs home | 28–156th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15385th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–40 | 44–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 32–35 |
| Underdog | 32–15 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 38–49 | 38–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–7 PHI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.