Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Mike TauchmanBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Toglia homered to center (429 feet), Estrada scored.4–6
- 5Moniak tripled to right, Fernández scored and Ritter scored.4–4
- 5Montgomery singled to right, Benintendi scored, Sosa to third.4–2
- 4Tauchman singled to right, Baldwin scored, Noda to third.3–2
- 3Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to right, Tauchman scored.2–2
- 3Meidroth doubled to center, Quero scored, Tauchman to third.1–2
- 2Fernández grounded into fielder's choice to first, McMahon scored, Nola out at second.0–2
- 1Moniak homered to right center (421 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 52%
- ML CHW -120 / COL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- CHW: Elo 48.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHW -109
- COL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +5 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +10 Elo | COL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 30th of 3011–35 | Road vs home | 9–3630th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15122nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301416 | Elo rating | 138630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–38 | 44–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 51–36 | 42–41 |
| Overs–unders | 40–49 | 37–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–3 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.