Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Edgar QueroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Quero homered to right (401 feet).3–2
- 5Freeman doubled to left, Ritter scored.2–2
- 5Toglia scored on error, Ritter safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Rojas, Ritter safe at second on error.2–1
- 4M. Taylor singled to right, Benintendi scored and Vargas scored, Quero to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 53%
- ML CHW -125 / COL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CHW: Elo 52.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHW -114
- COL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.9 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +1 | CHW: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +19 Elo | CHW 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.627th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 30th of 309–35 | Road vs home | 9–3430th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15151st of 30 |
| 29th of 301412 | Elo rating | 139030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–37 | 43–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 50–36 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders | 39–48 | 36–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–3 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.