Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- German MarquezPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9M. Taylor homered to center (464 feet), Noda scored.10–3
- 8Doyle homered to left (431 feet).8–3
- 8Sosa singled to center, M. Taylor scored and Noda scored, Tauchman to second.8–2
- 5Rojas reached on infield single to third, Teel scored.6–2
- 2Sosa homered to center (413 feet), Tauchman scored.5–2
- 2Tauchman singled to center, Slater scored.3–2
- 1Beck singled to right, Freeman scored and Goodman scored.2–2
- 1Montgomery tripled to center, Baldwin scored.2–0
- 1Baldwin doubled to right, Sosa scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- COL 57%
- ML CHW +120 / COL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- COL: Elo 49.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- COL -130
- CHW +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.0 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +3 Elo | CHW 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −2.530th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–35 | Road vs home | 9–3530th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15132nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301413 | Elo rating | 139030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–38 | 44–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 50–36 | 42–41 |
| Overs–unders | 39–49 | 36–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–3 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.