Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching9.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goodman homered to left center (398 feet), Freeman scored.2–10
- 7Duran homered to right center (439 feet).0–10
- 7Story homered to left center (414 feet), Anthony scored and Refsnyder scored.0–9
- 7Anthony singled to left, González scored.0–6
- 7González tripled to center, Mayer scored.0–5
- 6Duran singled to right, Rafaela scored.0–4
- 6Rafaela doubled to left, Anthony scored and Story scored.0–3
- 6Story singled to right, González scored, Story to second, Anthony to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 70%
- ML COL +220 / BOS -270
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 69.5%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -234
- COL +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −6 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +143 Elo | BOS 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3011–34 | Road vs home | 26–2015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 30th of 301386 | Elo rating | 150815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–46 | 48–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 21–31 |
| Underdog | 43–42 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 38–53 | 46–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–3 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.