Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Roman AnthonyBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Richard FittsPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8González homered to center (454 feet).3–9
- 8Rafaela homered to left center (407 feet).3–8
- 7Narváez singled to left, Duran scored.3–7
- 7Duran singled to right, Anthony scored, Duran to second.3–6
- 6McMahon singled to center, Estrada scored, Toglia to third.3–5
- 6Toglia grounded into fielder's choice to third, Moniak scored, Estrada to third.2–5
- 5Anthony homered to center (418 feet), González scored.1–5
- 2Toro doubled to right, Abreu scored and Narváez scored.1–3
- 2Abreu doubled to left, Story scored, Narváez to third.1–1
- 2Doyle singled to center, Estrada scored, Toglia to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 68%
- ML COL +200 / BOS -240
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 67.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -212
- COL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.4 – 6.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Richard Fitts: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +129 Elo | BOS 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3011–33 | Road vs home | 25–2016th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 30th of 301388 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–45 | 47–44 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 20–31 |
| Underdog | 43–41 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 37–53 | 45–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–2 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.