Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting1-4
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Reds- Austin HaysBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hays singled to left, McLain scored and De La Cruz scored, Hays to second.0–6
- 6De La Cruz singled to right, Friedl scored on throwing error by right fielder Myers and Marte scored, De La Cruz to second, McLain safe at third on error.0–4
- 2Steer homered to left (395 feet).0–2
- 1Hays singled to center, De La Cruz scored, Hays thrown out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 60%
- ML MIA +140 / CIN -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 56.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CIN -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 5.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +45 Elo | CIN 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 25–2117th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 25th of 301469 | Elo rating | 150018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–39 | 49–44 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–13 | 15–27 |
| Underdog | 50–26 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 45–46 | 41–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 9–10 CIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.