Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.0 IP, 10 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lux scored, Marte safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Norby, Trevino to second, Benson to third.12–2
- 9Stowers singled to center, Ramírez scored.12–1
- 8Myers hit sacrifice fly to right, Norby scored.11–1
- 6Edwards singled to left, Hicks scored.10–1
- 6Myers grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Norby scored, Hernández out at second, Hicks to third.9–1
- 6Hernández walked, Stowers scored, Hicks to second, Norby to third.8–1
- 3Norby hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramírez scored.7–1
- 3Stowers hit sacrifice fly to right, Lopez scored, Ramírez to third.6–1
- 3Ramírez doubled to left, J. Sánchez scored, Lopez to third.5–1
- 3J. Sánchez singled to center, Edwards scored.4–1
- 3Edwards doubled to right, Hernández scored and Myers scored.3–1
- 3Myers singled to center, Hicks scored, Hernández to third.1–1
- 1McLain homered to left (354 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML MIA +100 / CIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 57.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +49 Elo | CIN 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 9th of 3021–21 | Road vs home | 24–2017th of 30 |
| 6th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 25th of 301467 | Elo rating | 150218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–38 | 48–43 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–13 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 49–25 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 43–46 | 39–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 8–9 CIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.