Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Connor NorbyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Norby homered to right (369 feet).2–7
- 8Benson homered to center (425 feet).1–7
- 8Hernández singled to left, Fortes scored.1–6
- 4De La Cruz doubled to center, Friedl scored.0–6
- 4Marte homered to left center (421 feet), Benson scored.0–5
- 1Stephenson singled to center, Hays scored, Lux to third.0–3
- 1Hays singled to left, De La Cruz scored.0–2
- 1De La Cruz doubled to left, McLain scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML MIA +120 / CIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 58.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +7 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +61 Elo | CIN 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–21 | Road vs home | 24–2118th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 25th of 301471 | Elo rating | 149819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–38 | 48–44 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–13 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 50–25 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 44–46 | 40–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 9–9 CIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.