Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- German MarquezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Goodman scored on Santillan wild pitch, McMahon to second on wild pitch by Santillan, Beck to third on wild pitch by Santillan.3–2
- 8Goodman scored on Santillan wild pitch, McMahon to second on wild pitch by Santillan, Beck to third on wild pitch by Santillan.3–2
- 7Friedl grounded out to shortstop, Benson scored, Marte to third.2–2
- 4McMahon homered to right (414 feet), Toglia scored.2–1
- 3Marte homered to left center (391 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 69%
- ML COL +210 / CIN -255
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 68.0%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -223
- COL +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 5.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −14 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +131 Elo | CIN 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 66.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 29th of 3011–36 | Road vs home | 26–2116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 30th of 301382 | Elo rating | 150218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–48 | 50–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 43–44 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 40–53 | 41–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–13 CIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 16.