Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Kyle FarmerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran homered to right center (417 feet), Mayer scored and Hamilton scored.2–10
- 8González homered to left center (368 feet), Yoshida scored.2–7
- 8Farmer homered to left (359 feet), Fernández scored.2–5
- 6Hamilton singled to right, González scored.0–5
- 5Abreu homered to right center (407 feet), Anthony scored.0–4
- 4Yoshida singled to right, Narváez scored.0–2
- 2Narváez homered to center (434 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 73%
- ML COL +260 / BOS -325
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 69.3%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -275
- COL +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 5.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +3 | COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +141 Elo | BOS 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 68.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3011–35 | Road vs home | 27–2015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 30th of 301384 | Elo rating | 151014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–47 | 49–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 22–31 |
| Underdog | 43–43 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 39–53 | 47–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–4 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.