New York Mets at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-4
- Clay HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Royals- John RaveBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Loftin singled to left, Tolbert scored.2–3
- 9J. Young hit sacrifice fly to center, McNeil scored.2–2
- 9McNeil tripled to right, Mauricio scored.1–2
- 2Rave doubled to right, Garcia scored and Perez scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML NYM -105 / KC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- KC: Elo 46.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −4 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +23 Elo | NYM 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 23–2623rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 7th of 301528 | Elo rating | 149122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–52 | 46–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–41 | 11–29 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 35–21 |
| Overs–unders | 43–53 | 38–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–4 KC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.