Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Tommy PhamBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Canario reached on infield single to second, N. Gonzales scored.3–9
- 8Loftin homered to left center (409 feet).2–9
- 6Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Isbel scored.2–8
- 5Perez homered to left center (411 feet).2–7
- 4Witt Jr. homered to right center (404 feet), India scored.2–6
- 3Canha grounded into fielder's choice to second, Garcia scored, Caglianone out at second, Perez to third.2–4
- 3Perez doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Garcia to third.2–3
- 3Garcia singled to left, India scored, Witt Jr. to second.2–2
- 3Pham homered to center (428 feet), Davis scored.2–1
- 1Pasquantino homered to right (378 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 57%
- ML PIT +120 / KC -145
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- KC: Elo 54.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- KC -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −7 | PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +32 Elo | KC 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.330th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–32 | Road vs home | 20–2425th of 30 |
| 1st of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 149022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–46 | 45–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 10–27 |
| Underdog | 37–27 | 35–19 |
| Overs–unders | 37–54 | 36–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–2 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.