Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perez singled to center, Witt Jr. scored, Rave to second.2–3
- 7Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to center, Young scored.1–3
- 7Rodríguez reached on infield single to shortstop, Williamson scored, Young to third.1–2
- 6Arozarena homered to center (418 feet).1–1
- 1Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML KC +140 / SEA -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- KC +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 2.8 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +1 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +55 Elo | SEA 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–22 | Road vs home | 21–2020th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301486 | Elo rating | 151313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–45 | 37–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–27 | 15–35 |
| Underdog | 31–18 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–51 | 49–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–10 SEA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.