Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-4
- Mike BurrowsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Ben WilliamsonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Williamson doubled to right, Polanco scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML PIT +145 / SEA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +57 Elo | SEA 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–30 | Road vs home | 23–2120th of 30 |
| 1st of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 24th of 301479 | Elo rating | 151511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–46 | 38–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 16–37 |
| Underdog | 35–27 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 37–52 | 49–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–4 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.