Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan EvansPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Canzone homered to center (412 feet).3–2
- 7Pasquantino singled to right, India scored and Witt Jr. scored.3–1
- 7Witt Jr. singled to center, Isbel scored, India to third.1–1
- 4Polanco homered to right (361 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML KC +100 / SEA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −11 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Evans: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +32 Elo | SEA 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 17th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 22–2020th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301485 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–45 | 37–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–27 | 15–36 |
| Underdog | 32–18 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–52 | 49–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–11 SEA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.