Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Tommy PhamBatting2-4
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Arozarena homered to left (399 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML PIT +100 / SEA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +4 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +44 Elo | SEA 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–31 | Road vs home | 24–2118th of 30 |
| 1st of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 24th of 301478 | Elo rating | 151611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–46 | 38–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 16–38 |
| Underdog | 36–27 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 37–53 | 49–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–5 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.