Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-3
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Isbel singled to left, Loftin scored, Rave to second.4–0
- 5Rave singled to right, Caglianone scored, Loftin to third.3–0
- 4Perez homered to left center (415 feet).2–0
- 4Witt Jr. homered to left center (425 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 58%
- ML KC +130 / ARI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 5.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +5 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +56 Elo | ARI 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 13th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 23–2422nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Elo rating | 151412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–46 | 45–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–27 | 25–31 |
| Underdog | 34–19 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–54 | 49–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–5 ARI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.