San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching9.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte homered to left (403 feet).7–2
- 9Devers hit sacrifice fly to left, Knizner scored, Adames to second, Yastrzemski to third.7–1
- 7Devers singled to right, Knizner scored and Adames scored.6–1
- 5Suárez homered to left (382 feet).4–1
- 3Ramos singled to left, Adames scored.4–0
- 3Adames doubled to right, Yastrzemski scored.3–0
- 1Lee hit sacrifice fly to center, Devers scored, Ramos to third.2–0
- 1Ramos doubled to left, Adames scored, Devers to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 53%
- ML SF -125 / ARI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- SF: Elo 47.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −6 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +17 Elo | ARI 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–24 | Road vs home | 22–2221st of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 151811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–51 | 44–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–40 | 24–30 |
| Underdog | 22–11 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 41–46 | 47–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 14–18 ARI in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 32.