San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bailey hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored.6–5
- 9Marte homered to right (410 feet), Perdomo scored.5–5
- 8McCarthy singled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored.5–3
- 8Wisely singled to right, Matos scored, Bailey to third.5–2
- 8Bailey singled to center, Lee scored, Matos to second.4–2
- 5Naylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Herrera scored, Perdomo to third.3–2
- 5Thomas homered to right center (386 feet).3–1
- 5Devers singled to right, Wisely scored.3–0
- 1Lee tripled to center, Flores scored.2–0
- 1Yastrzemski homered to right center (379 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 56%
- ML SF +115 / ARI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.5%, market 55.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -125
- SF +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.0 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +39 Elo | ARI 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3020–24 | Road vs home | 22–2121st of 30 |
| 26th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Elo rating | 151911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–51 | 44–41 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–40 | 24–29 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 40–46 | 46–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 13–18 ARI in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 31.