San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6McCann homered to left (396 feet).2–8
- 6Grichuk homered to center (453 feet).2–7
- 5Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (403 feet), Suárez scored.2–6
- 4McCarthy homered to right center (422 feet), Suárez scored and Gurriel Jr. scored.2–4
- 3Perdomo singled to right, McCann scored.2–1
- 2Bailey grounded out to first, Johnson scored.2–0
- 2Adames homered to left center (409 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML SF +110 / ARI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −11 | SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +40 Elo | ARI 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 15th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 21–2121st of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–50 | 43–41 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–40 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 39–46 | 45–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 13–17 ARI in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 30.