San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tyler FitzgeraldBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suárez homered to left (377 feet).2–4
- 7Perdomo singled to left, Thomas scored, Herrera to second.2–3
- 7Fitzgerald doubled to center, Adames scored and Smith scored.2–2
- 6Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (409 feet).0–2
- 3Herrera hit sacrifice bunt, Thomas scored, Herrera to first on throwing error by catcher Bailey.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 58%
- ML SF -155 / ARI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.3 pts
- SF: Elo 45.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -140
- ARI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.6 – 3.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +13 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +35 Elo | ARI 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 13th of 3020–22 | Road vs home | 20–2123rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 151512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–49 | 42–41 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–39 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 39–45 | 45–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 13–16 ARI in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 29.