Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Suárez homered to left (376 feet).9–3
- 5Canha homered to left (408 feet).9–2
- 4Pasquantino homered to right center (401 feet), Witt Jr. scored.8–2
- 2Perez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, India scored, Pasquantino out at second, Witt Jr. to third.6–2
- 2Pasquantino singled to center, Rave scored, Witt Jr. to second, India to third.5–2
- 2Witt Jr. singled to right, Fermin scored, India to second, Rave to third.4–2
- 1Naylor singled to center, Perdomo scored.3–2
- 1Suárez hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored, Perdomo to third.3–1
- 1Pasquantino homered to right (394 feet), India scored and Witt Jr. scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML KC -105 / ARI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +37 Elo | ARI 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–23 | Road vs home | 22–2322nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301486 | Elo rating | 151512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–45 | 44–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–27 | 24–30 |
| Underdog | 33–18 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–53 | 48–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–4 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.