Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Royals- Nick LoftinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Loftin singled to center, Garcia scored, Perez to second.3–4
- 8Reynolds grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kiner-Falefa scored, Pham out at second, Triolo to third.3–3
- 7Loftin homered to left (359 feet), Perez scored.2–3
- 7N. Gonzales homered to center (427 feet).2–1
- 4Cruz homered to right center (458 feet).1–1
- 2Caglianone homered to center (421 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 55%
- ML PIT +115 / KC -135
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- KC: Elo 55.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +41 Elo | KC 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 3012–33 | Road vs home | 21–2423rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–47 | 46–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 11–27 |
| Underdog | 37–28 | 35–19 |
| Overs–unders | 38–54 | 37–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–3 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.