New York Mets at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jonathan BowlanPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9McNeil singled to center, Alonso scored.3–1
- 6India doubled to left, Isbel scored.2–1
- 4Soto homered to right (435 feet), Lindor scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -125 / KC +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.9 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −11 | NYM: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Angel Zerpa: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +12 Elo | NYM 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3021–27 | Road vs home | 23–2522nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 8th of 301526 | Elo rating | 149222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–52 | 46–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–41 | 11–29 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 43–52 | 38–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–4 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.