New York Mets at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soto homered to center (411 feet).8–3
- 9Lindor homered to center (410 feet), Taylor scored and Nimmo scored.7–3
- 8Vientos doubled to center, Nimmo scored, Soto scored and Lindor scored.4–3
- 7Witt Jr. homered to center (431 feet), India scored.1–3
- 6Loftin doubled to left, Perez scored.1–1
- 3Alonso walked, Torrens scored, Lindor to second, Nimmo to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML NYM -135 / KC +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.0 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | −2 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 1.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +35 Elo | NYM 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3020–27 | Road vs home | 23–2422nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 8th of 301524 | Elo rating | 149521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–52 | 46–48 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–41 | 11–29 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 35–19 |
| Overs–unders | 42–52 | 37–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–4 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.